Pakistan–Afghanistan Relations at a Breaking Point: Causes and Consequences

Pakistan–Afghanistan Relations at a Breaking Point. This is not merely a diplomatic hyperbole but a stark reality defining the contemporary landscape of South-Central Asia. For decades, the relationship between these two neighboring Islamic nations has been a complex tapestry woven with threads of shared ethnicity, religion, and history, but also stained by deep-seated mistrust, cross-border terrorism, and divergent strategic interests. The Taliban’s return to power in Kabul in 2021, initially perceived as a strategic victory for Islamabad, has paradoxically catalyzed the most severe rupture in bilateral ties in recent memory. This article delves into the multifaceted causes driving this crisis and explores the profound consequences for regional stability and global security. An in-depth analysis of why Pakistan–Afghanistan Relations at a Breaking Point. Explore the historical roots, the Taliban dilemma, TTP safe havens, economic fallout, and regional consequences of this critical geopolitical rift.

The Historical Baggage: The Durand Line Dispute

To understand the present impasse, one must first acknowledge the historical ghost that haunts this relationship: the Durand Line. Drawn in 1893 by British diplomat Sir Mortimer Durand, this 2,640-kilometer border artificially split the Pashtun and Baloch ethnic groups between British India (later Pakistan) and Afghanistan. No Afghan government, including the previous Taliban regime (1996-2001) and the current one, has formally recognized the Durand Line as an international border.

Pakistan, as the successor state, insists on its legitimacy and has long sought to fence and militarize the border to control movement and insurgency. Afghanistan views this as an imposition and a violation of Pashtun tribal lands. This foundational dispute fuels a perpetual cycle of suspicion and resentment, making any long-term cooperation inherently fragile.

The Taliban Dilemma: From Strategic Asset to Strategic Liability

For years, elements within Pakistan’s security establishment supported the Afghan Taliban, viewing them as a “strategic asset” to counter Indian influence in Afghanistan and ensure a “friendly” government in Kabul. The calculation was that a Pakistan-aligned Taliban would secure its western frontier and provide “strategic depth” against India.

This strategy has spectacularly backfired. The Taliban that retook power is not the pliable proxy Islamabad envisioned. They have asserted a strong nationalist stance, refusing to acknowledge the Durand Line and, most critically, failing to rein in the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), also known as the Pakistani Taliban.

The Core Irritant: The TTP Safe Haven in Afghanistan

This is the most immediate and explosive cause of the current breakdown. The TTP, a designated terrorist organization, has waged a bloody insurgency inside Pakistan for over 15 years. Pakistan expected the Afghan Taliban, their ideological kin, to disarm, expel, or control the TTP militants operating from Afghan soil.

Instead, evidence suggests that the Afghan Taliban have provided the TTP with a safe haven, allowing them to regroup, rearm, and launch intensified cross-border attacks into Pakistan. The table below summarizes the stark contrast in Pakistani expectations versus the reality on the ground.

This perceived betrayal has led to a dramatic escalation. Pakistan has resorted to unprecedented public accusations against the Taliban government and has initiated multiple military strikes inside Afghan territory, targeting TTP positions. These airstrikes have resulted in civilian casualties, further inflaming public opinion in Afghanistan and drawing condemnation from Kabul.

Economic Strangulation and the Refugee Crisis

The deteriorating relations have severe economic and humanitarian dimensions.

• Trade and Transit: Pakistan has historically been a vital trade and transit route for landlocked Afghanistan. However, border closures and heightened restrictions at key crossings like Torkham and Chaman have become a frequent punitive measure. These disruptions strangle the Afghan economy, increasing the cost of essential goods and fueling animosity among ordinary Afghans.

• Forced Repatriation: In a highly controversial move, Pakistan initiated a large-scale campaign to deport hundreds of thousands of undocumented Afghan refugees and migrants. While Pakistan cites security concerns, critics view it as a form of collective punishment and a lever to pressure the Taliban government. This has created a massive humanitarian crisis, overwhelming an Afghanistan already on the brink of economic collapse.

The Regional and Global Consequences

The rupture between Islamabad and Kabul has consequences that extend far beyond their bilateral dispute, creating a dangerous vortex with global implications.

1. A Resurgent Terrorist Landscape: The safe haven for TTP in Afghanistan directly threatens Pakistani stability. A strengthened TTP could launch more sophisticated attacks within Pakistan, destabilizing its already fragile political and economic situation. Furthermore, the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISIS-K), an enemy of both the Taliban and Pakistan, thrives in ungoverned spaces, posing a threat to the entire region and international interests.

2. Shifting Regional Alignments: Pakistan’s frustration is pushing it to seek deeper engagement with other regional players. This includes:

   • China: Pressuring Pakistan to stabilize the region for its China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) investments.

   • Iran: Despite their own tensions, Pakistan and Iran have conducted joint military operations along their border, partly driven by mutual concerns about cross-border militancy emanating from Afghanistan.

   • Central Asian Republics (CARs): All seek stability in Afghanistan for their own connectivity projects but are wary of the spillover effects of Pakistan-Afghan tensions.

3. The India Factor: Pakistan’s perennial fear of being squeezed in a two-front scenario with India and Afghanistan is intensifying. If the Taliban government continues its defiance, Pakistan may perceive an even stronger informal alignment between Kabul and New Delhi, a nightmare scenario for its security establishment. This could lead to a more aggressive and unpredictable Pakistani foreign policy.

4. Aid and Recognition Stalemate: The international community, particularly the West, is reluctant to formally recognize the Taliban regime or provide substantial aid, citing human rights abuses, particularly against women and girls. The ongoing conflict with Pakistan further complicates any potential pathway to international legitimacy for the Taliban, isolating Afghanistan and exacerbating its humanitarian crisis.

Conclusion: Is There a Way Forward?

Pakistan–Afghanistan Relations at a Breaking Point is a crisis with no easy solutions. The trust deficit is wider than ever. Pakistan’s policy of leveraging non-state actors has created a monster that now threatens its own internal security. The Afghan Taliban’s ideological rigidity and refusal to act against the TTP have isolated them further and invited direct military retaliation.

A de-escalation requires a fundamental recalculation from both sides. Pakistan must move beyond its failed “strategic depth” doctrine and pursue a policy of state-to-state engagement based on mutual economic interests, not proxy warfare. The Afghan Taliban, for their own survival, must demonstrate they are a responsible governing force by reigning in terrorist groups that threaten their neighbors.

Without such a fundamental shift, the region is poised for prolonged instability, with a resurgent terrorist threat, continued humanitarian suffering, and the constant risk of a wider, more destructive conflict between two neighbors who can neither live with each other nor without each other.